How Will COVID-19 & Enrollment Decline Impact School Budgets in Boston?
Introducing our FY22 Boston school Budget Analysis Series
This is part one of our five-part series on the BPS FY22 Budget Proposal. Read parts two and three.
On March 12, 2020, Boston Mayor Marty Walsh announced the closure of Boston Public Schools (BPS) in response to the novel coronavirus. At the time, we all hoped it would be temporary, as schools scrambled to overcome their remote learning curve. Finally, on April 21, Gov. Charlie Baker called it for the Commonwealth: schools would not reopen for the remainder of the 2019–2020 school year.
288 days later, BPS buildings remain closed to most children, with a plan to reopen in phases again soon — but coronavirus is hardly novel anymore. 288 days later, Boston alone has suffered more than 1,100 deaths, with the city’s Black and Latinx neighborhoods hit harder than others. The grand experiment that has been “reopening schools” remains underway to varying levels of success nationwide, with half the school year already behind us.
This pandemic has been a slow-motion natural disaster — but unlike hurricanes, earthquakes, or tornados, no sudden physical destruction mars our landscape: there are no downed power lines, no fissures in the pavement, no buildings reduced to their foundations. But COVID-19 has undoubtedly left our landscape forever changed, a calamity felt acutely by children, families, and educators.
Without clear consensus and direction from all levels of government, children, families, and educators have had to make a way out of no way. From remote learning, to navigating in-person options, all while balancing life and livelihoods, families and educators have essentially pitched their own field tents. After almost a year and clear signs that school buildings will reopen this fall, children, families, and educators are eager to know what is next.
Like all natural disasters, at some point, we must move from relief to recovery efforts.
It’s all a matter of timing.
What we owe and what we can provide children, families, and educators is being decided now.
Part of recovering from a disaster means planning for what’s next. If schools are to appropriately plan for recovery, they need to know just how much they’ll have to work with.
Enter: Boston’s FY22 budget season, which officially kicks off tomorrow, Wednesday, February 3. Click here to join Wednesday’s Zoom convening of the Boston School Committee at 5:00 PM Eastern.
We know already heading into budget season that BPS faces a number of challenges and opportunities. We also ask, what will students and families most need when they return to in-person learning? What will be their academic, social, and emotional needs? At the same time, BPS faces dual, long-term challenges of both enrollment decline and uncertain city revenue streams as a result of the pandemic.
As we move through budget season, Boston Schools Fund has committed to presenting analysis of and insight into the proposed FY22 BPS budget. Our goal is simple: in a budget cycle unlike any other, we aim to create a common, easy-to-understand guide to the budget process for public officials, school communities and families, and other stakeholders.
But our goal is more than just clarifying the complexities of budgeting: through our Budget Analysis Series, we hope to provide context and meaning to the numbers, highlighting the challenges and opportunities that BPS will face in the years to come.
A bird’s-eye view of the BPS budget process
Planning for next year’s school budget begins not long after the school year starts. Between October and January, BPS Central Office provides individual schools with enrollment projections and proposed classroom configurations for the next school year. These projections determine each school’s budget, calculated using the Weighted Student Funding formula.
Beginning in February and continuing through March, BPS Central Office presents their initial budget recommendation to the Boston School Committee. Public hearings are held to discuss budget details, allowing for public input and comment. The School Committee then votes to approve the school budget.
In April, the School Committee presents the voted and approved school budget to the Mayor. The Mayor approves and submits the school budget — along with the rest of the city budget — to Boston City Council.
From April to June, public hearings are held to comment on the entire city budget before the City Council approves a final version of the budget, including the school budget. City Council typically votes on the final city budget on or before the second Wednesday in June. Finally, sometime in June, the Mayor approves the final version of the city budget for adoption before July 1.
Save the date
As we look ahead to the rollout of the FY22 budget season, you’ll want to put these dates in your calendar:
What’s different about this year
Something to think about — as much as our budget analysis drills down into a very local level, the national stage has influenced this year. With Mayor Walsh’s nomination to U.S. Secretary of Labor, Boston City Council President Kim Janey will step in as Acting Mayor once Walsh is confirmed and resigns as Mayor. Let’s not forget that we already have three declared mayoral candidates for November’s mayoral race — and we still don’t know if a special election will happen between now and November.
Given the key roles played by both the Mayor and City Council in the budget process, the stakes feel higher this year when it comes to understanding the FY22 budget and exactly how BPS fits within Boston’s bigger plan.
For reference, the school budget is no small part of the city, either — at $1.3b total, the school budget accounts for 35% of the city’s total budget.
How we got here…
Before we can dive fully into the FY22 budget, it helps to first take a look at how the budget has evolved over the last few years with some helpful historical context and framing.
Persistent enrollment decline
In December 2020, we examined the impact of COVID-19 on BPS enrollment. In a joint paper with Boston Indicators, we discovered that BPS enrollment has experienced 5 percent decline this year. When we take a step back, we can see this year’s decline is part of a larger trend: BPS has experienced a nearly 9-percent decline across all schools over the last four years.
Why does this matter? Many schools lose funding when their enrollment declines because school budgets are developed using a per-pupil, weighted student funding formula. To soften the impact of budget declines, BPS has created a number of additional funding streams to support affected schools.
(We’ll talk more about weighted student funding and soft landings in a future release, so stay tuned.)
…and where we’re going.
Students returning to school next fall face a myriad of academic and personal challenges. Recovering from a year of remote learning will require a range of possible supports. And let’s be honest: recovery as a word itself doesn’t even capture the full effects of the pandemic on students, their families, and their teachers — or even on public education itself. But its impact is undeniable — and no matter what you call it, recovery will be essential.
How might this translate into dollars? Some cost estimates of these supports range from $8,000 to $16,000 per pupil. Other experts predict state revenue declines of 23 percent over the next three years in the absence of federal aid that would lead to an average of $1,800 per-pupil decline in funding over that time. We won’t know for sure until we have a clearer picture of what both state and federal aid might provide for Boston.
Looking at the big picture ahead
With the release of the FY22 BPS budget proposal less than 24 hours away, here’s what we’ll be on the lookout for as BPS walks us through it Wednesday night. Here are our questions heading into budget season, grouped into three main categories:
Responding to COVID-19
- What additional funding will be available to schools to address academic, social, and emotional needs arising from a year of remote learning?
- How much of these funds will be managed centrally by the district versus by the schools themselves?
- Are there any savings from operating remotely in FY21 and how can they be deployed for the upcoming school year?
Responding to Enrollment Decline
- How does BPS plan to financially support the 78 schools that lost enrollment this year?
- Does BPS project that enrollment will rebound next year? If not, what is the long-term plan for financing schools with declining enrollment?
Updates to Ongoing BPS Initiatives
- How will funding be allocated to support existing initiatives, such as high school redesign, improving transformation schools, and BuildBPS school grade reconfigurations?
We don’t have the answers yet, but we all will soon — and we’re just getting started.
Take a look at our initial Budget Primer Analysis Deck here.
What’s next in our Budget Analysis Series
At each point along the FY22 budget process, we’ll release more findings and deeper analyses. We’d love your feedback and thoughts on our Budget Primer and we welcome your input on what data points to dive into next. Send us your questions and comments here.
Here’s a sneak peak at what’s coming down the pike: look for our initial reactions and observations to the FY22 budget this Friday. You’ll find our long-form reactions here on Medium and key headline takeaways in our weekly FYI from BSF newsletter. (Not getting our newsletter? Subscribe here.)
Before we sign off for this first release in our series, a reminder of why we do this work:
At Boston Schools Fund, we envision a Boston where every child, regardless of race, ability, income, or neighborhood, attends a high-quality school that meets their needs as learners and allows them to lead choice-filled lives.
Now let’s get to it.
About Boston Schools Fund
Founded in 2015, Boston Schools Fund is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization that leverages grant-making, strategic partnerships, and data and policy analysis to advance K-12 educational equity in the city of Boston, particularly for those most underserved.
